Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s recent visit to the Northeast may have left many people in Assam, Nagaland and Manipur disappointed. The senior Congress leader’s not so enthusiastic comments on the ongoing peace parleys with different Underground outfit has put a big question mark over the UPA government’s sincerity to address the political grievances faced by different groups in the northeast region. Going by his comments, it goes to show that New Delhi may be buying time in dealing with the crisis. On the progress made in the Indo-Naga peace talks, Mukherjee sounded almost convinced that the peace process with the NSCN could be there for the long haul. There has been for sometime now, a growing apprehension that the current 6 month extension of ceasefire may not be renewed if New Delhi does not give a serious push to the talks which is now virtually stalled over the integration issue. An opinion is now growing that it has become meaningless to continue on the dialogue path if the Government of India has nothing substantial to offer to the Nagas despite the 8 & ½ years of ceasefire. The recent 5th Naga Peoples consultation on Peace process held at Bangkok has also come out with a strong ‘open statement’, which, although acknowledging the progress made, took the firm opinion that the outcome of the Political talks so far was far from satisfactory.
Coming back to the Defence Minister’s trip, it is obvious that he had other things on his mind. As is made out to be, Mukherjee’s main purpose of visit to the region was to hold interactions with troops who are engaged in protecting the international border. It is well known that cooperation between India’s and Myanmar’s security forces in counter-insurgency operations has grown dramatically in recent years. With several armed groups—United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and the NSCN-K—to be contend with, New Delhi has no qualms about engaging the military regime in Rangoon.
One possibility doing the rounds in defence circles is that India should go in for joint operations inside Myanmar. Unpleasant memories of India’s deployment of troops in Sri Lanka during the late eighties should act as a warning if New Delhi has any intention to get involved into conflicts in its neighbourhood. There is a danger of India getting drawn more and more into Myanmar’s internal politics and conflicts. India could end up in a quagmire that it could well avoid.
If New Delhi is sincere to work out a road map for peace in the northeast, it would have to engage the people through a dialogue process, listening to their grievances and being accommodative to what they have to say. A military-centric approach will not serve any purpose and will only further alienate people.
The Manmohan Singh government has yet to work out afresh the road map to establish durable peace in the northeast. So far its effort is on fire fighting. That is no good in the short to medium term. Instead of assuming that a military solution is achievable, which is not, the government of India must instead advocate peace through negotiation and not guns. It must try and help open doors. Doors to genuine dialogue.
