Nukhosa Chuzho
Kohima
With a predetermined objective to install peace and carry out economic development and growth, the parliament on August 5, 2019 (the presidential assent received on August 9, 2019) passed the Jammu & Kashmir Reorganization Act, 2019, ending the autonomous existence of the state of Jammu & Kashmir by revoking Article 370. Abrogation of temporary special status conferred by the Constitution for the erstwhile state of Jammu & Kashmir witnessed unfolding of events detrimental to the regional interests of New Delhi. The games that ensued thereafter bear significant implications to New Delhi’s long-held policy and strategic consideration.
An immediate aftershock following the scrapping of Article 370 was the increased interoperability and cohesiveness of the People’s Liberation Army and Pakistan military to fight against India. New Delhi was since surprised with military misadventures from its northern front. Such unsolicited advancement from its western frontier cannot be dismissed altogether.
Premising on a nuclear ‘no first use’ policy, India conducted a series of nuclear tests in 1998. The underlying objective of deterring an enemy state from invasion and nuclear attack comes embedded in a nuclear ‘no first use’ ideology. The deterring policy however has found itself obsolete today after more than two decades since India has become an overt nuclear state in 1998. The deterrence has failed and its irrelevance is further evinced from the events reported beginning in the early part of May, 2020, where PLA and Indian Army engaged in skirmishes along the Sino-Indian border in Ladakh region. The reported run-ins had reluctantly discredited New Delhi’s claim for prowess in conventional warfare whilst also subdued deterrence policy, requiring a new approach to stop ambitious China along the McMohan Line.
On the western front, the role of Pakistan in destabilizing and finally toppling the western-back Afghan government is branded one of the most successful contemporary covert intelligence. Having gained its expertise and successfully collaborated with the CIA in repulsing the Soviets during the mujahideen war in Afghanistan, the ISI clandestine operation in Afghanistan by equipping the conventional weapons with Talibans (which the ISI allegedly pilfered close to 50% of the arms during the mujahideen war), providing logistical support and imparting training, or even physically partaking in the recent Taliban’s swift sweeping of power, is paid off. India’s investments in education and civil infrastructure like dams in Afghanistan, which is pegged at 3 billion dollars, came crushing down in a matter of not more than a month.
Installing Taliban back to power has served Pakistan the twin objectives of averting Afghanistan alignment with New Delhi and influx of refugees through its western border which could cause destabilization in the region. Having secured its western frontier and with its friendly cohorts helmed in to run the government in Afghanistan, Pakistan may now cause instability in not-yet-peaceful Jammu & Kashmir by using foreign operatives with plausible deniability in mind.
Even at the domestic front, the primordial target of bringing back peace and propel economic development and growth in Jammu & Kashmir is still far from being true. Detention and keeping known political figures under house arrest do not imply the dawn of peace anyhow. New Delhi as such is presented with three-front defense imperative – thwarting terrorist infiltration from hostile Pakistan in the west, defending its territories in the north from abusive China and managing the UT of Jammu & Kashmir which has been plagued by renewed mistrust and discontentment.
Following withdrawal from Central Asia, signs of the US and its allies stealthily gravitating towards Southeast Asia are already heralded. Kamala Harris’ presence in Singapore days after the fall of Kabul was an indication. At the same time, the US Defense Department envisioned Southeast Asia to be the battleground of the 21st Century geopolitical play in its report titled “Energy Futures”.
As the West looks east in search of energy and influence, New Delhi is finding itself mired in a faulty experiment with Jammu & Kashmir. New Delhi is placed in a fixed strategic thinking where moving eastwards would put its territory of Jammu & Kashmir at peril. Whereas its concentration on Jammu & Kashmir and the peripherals will result in isolation, giving advantage to the two all-weather allies – Pakistan and China – in nipping New Delhi in the bud.
The task for New Delhi underwent metastasis following the former state of Jammu & Kashmir was dismantled to form two new Union territories. The fall of western-backed government in Afghanistan completely altered India’s strategic outlook even as the residue of Jammu & Kashmir refused to settle down. New Delhi requires an overhaul in defence segment to repel two-front hostilities from north and west (including Central Asia and Pakistan) and simultaneously look east to remain relevant.
