What is GSDP?
The Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) is defined as the money value of all the goods and services produced within the economy during a period of time (usually a year). The growth of the GSDP estimated at constant prices is taken as the real growth of the economy and GSDP estimated at current prices is the taken as the nominal growth.
What is Per Capita Income?
Per Capita Income (PCI) is an amount of income which is supposed to be received by each individual in the State if the total amount of State Income is equally distributed among the total Population of the State.
Morung Express Feature
The onset of COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 has created “unprecedented turmoil” everywhere. Nagaland was no exception, and the resultant restriction of the pandemic adversely effected economic growth in the State. However, things gradually improved in later half of 2021. As on March 2022, the State Government has relaxed almost all the SOPs related with the pandemic and enabling the operation of the economy to its full potentials. The State’s economy as a whole recovered to some extent in 2021-22, after a negative growth in 2021-21. In the following, The Morung Learning presents a snapshot of the State’s economy as reflected in the annual “Nagaland Economic Survey 2021-22.”
STATE OF THE ECONOMY
As per the advance estimate (AE) of Gross State Domestic Products (GSDP) for the year 2021-22, the economy picked up from a negative growth of -2.10% in 2020-21 to 6.68% (AE) during 2021-22. The estimates further suggested that growth rate has surpassed the pre-pandemic level of 4.30% GAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 8 years.
In absolute terms, the real growth of the economy is estimated to increase from Rs 17772 crore in 2020-21 (Quick Estimate) to Rs 18992 crore in 2021-22 (AE). The nominal growth of the economy is estimated to increase from Rs 29541 crore in 2020-21 to Rs.32424 crore in 2021-22 (A.E).
During 2021-22 (A.E), the Per Capita Income of Nagaland is estimated to rise to Rs.130221 from Rs.119274 in 2020-21.
SECTORAL PERFORMANCE
While estimating GSDP, the economy of the State is divided into three sectors
• Primary
• Secondary
• Tertiary
Amongst the three sectors, Tertiary sector contributes the highest to the economy of Nagaland, followed by the Primary sector and Secondary sector. The contribution of the Secondary sector has remained stagnant between 11 to 13% throughout the period from 2011-12 to 2021-22 (A.E).
Percentage contribution of three sectors: (table)
Primary sector
The Primary sector comprises of Crops, Livestock, Fishing & Aquaculture, Forestry & Logging and Mining & quarrying. As per the AE of GSDP, the sector is estimated to grow from 0.97% in 2020-21 (Q.E) to 2.68% in 2021-22 (A.E).
In the Primary sector, the sub-sector Crops has become the prime mover as any positive or negative growth trend of the sector effect similar trend of the primary sector toward the same line. During 2020-21, while all the sub-sector of the Primary sector had fallen to negative due to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, the Crop sub-sector grew by 7.19% thereby moderating the growth of the sector to 0.97%.
During 2021-22 (A.E), the growth in the crop sector is estimated to fall to 3.06%, mainly due to decline in the production of Cereals from 708.45 MT in 2020-21 to 611.10 MT in 2021-22.
In the other components of Primary sector, the growth of all the sub sectors is estimated to bounce back from negative growth to positive growth during 2021-22 (A.E) i.e. Livestock from -18.05% in 2020-21 (Q.E) to 1.04% in 2021-22 (A.E), Forestry and Logging from -0.41% in 2020-21 (Q.E) to 1.95% in 2021-22 (A.E), Mining & Quarrying from -30.31% in 2020-21 (Q.E) to 2.64% in 2021-22 (A.E).
Secondary Sector
The Secondary Sector comprised of all those economic activities which transform one goods into another goods and is the core of the industrial sector. The sub-sectors are Manufacturing, Electricity Gas, Water Supply & Other utility services and Construction. The growth of manufacturing sector after reaching a peak of 40.53% in 2015-16 has steadily assumed a declining trend over the past years.
During the year 2021-22, the average growth of State Index of Industrial Production (IIP) till the third quarter registered a growth of 10.35% over the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Consequently, the Manufacturing sector is estimated to pick up from a growth of -0.46% in 2020-21 to 9.23% in 2021-21.
Under manufacturing, the major production comes from, manufactures of wood and wood products (46.38%), Manufacture of furniture (21.31%), Manufacture of non-metallic minerals (8.10%) and the rest are spread over activities like grind mill products, dairy product, weaving apparels, coke and refine petroleum etc.
The sub sector of Electricity Gas, Water supply and other utility Services were the least affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic year of 2020-21, whereas all the other sub-sector of the Secondary sector registered a negative growth, the sub sector is estimated to have grown by 1.06%. During 2021-22 (A.E), the sub-sector is estimated to grow at 11.94%.
Tertiary Sector
The Tertiary Sector comprises of all economic activities that produces services. It includes Transport, Storage and Communication, Trade, hotels and Restaurants, Banking and Insurance, Real Estates etc. Over the years, the tertiary sector has become the most robust sector in term of percentage contribution to GSDP.
One of the critical areas where the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt the most was in the Trade & Repairs and Hotel & Restaurant sector, with growth falling to -13.79% in 2020-21. With the opening up of the economy, the growth of the sub-sector is estimated to bounce back to a positive growth of 12.55% in 2021-22 (A.E).
The Financial services comes under the category of supra regional sector due to their pan India existence. Consequently, the share of the State is simply the allocation made by National Account Division of the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Government of India. During 20221-22, the allocation for the State is anticipated to increase to Rs.688.97 crore from Rs. 661.39 crore in 2020-21 registering a growth of 4.17%.
The estimates of the Public Administration come from the budget document of the Central Government, the State Government and annual report of the autonomous bodies. During 2021-22, as per the Budget Estimates of the State Government, the allocation for public administration has increase from Rs. 4741.50 crore 2020-21 to Rs. 5374.93 showing a growth of 13.35 %. Adjusting for the inflationary trend in the economy, the overall growth of Public Administration is estimated at 7.08%.
The sub-sector of Other Services comprises of Education services, Human health services and Other Remaining services. During the year 2021-22, the GVA of the sector is estimated to grow at 6.09%. In term of absolute figure, the GVA of the sector is estimated to increase from Rs. 2500.03 crore in 2020-21 to Rs.2652.28 crore. Sub sector wise, the Education services is estimated to grow at 7.02% and Medical service 7.04%.
*A Morung Express Feature based on ‘Nagaland Economic Survey 2021-22’ published by the Department of Economics & Statistics, Nagaland.
