Should the Cong swap places between Pranab & Manmohan?
The race for India’s new President, to take over from incumbent Pratibha Patil whose tenure ends in July, is turning out to be a playground for a thrilling game of political one-upmanship. The diversity of India’s political parties—both national and regional—making their presence felt, the divide between the ruling Congress and the Opposition, the numbers game, prospect of future alliances and not to forget the big General Election in 2014, all these are being played out. The pace has been set by the disclosure of the Congress first choice—Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and the quick rebuttal by two of its known allies Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress and Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party. The duo in a political googly of sorts came out with three names—former President APJ Abdul Kalam, former Speaker Somnath Chatterjee and perhaps the biggest shock Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The Congress game plan, which was to build a consensus around Pranab Mukherjee, has been sort of derailed, at least for now, although in politics one can never know what other surprises may be in store. Initially it appeared to be the case that both Mamata and Mulayam would go with the choice of Sonia Gandhi and therefore the announcement of the three names has taken everyone by surprise. As a result, now there are all kinds of speculation and theory doing the rounds on the reason behind this surprise move from Mamata and Mulayam. Rightly so, many are also looking at the name of the current PM (in the list for President) as a vote of no confidence and that they would want Manmohan Singh to be moved to Rashtrapati Bhavan as nominal Head of State—a more befitting role for Manmohan perhaps.
And so the question also arises as to whether the Congress will endorse Manmohan and not Pranab for President. In one way this makes sense as it will be seen as an honorable exit for Manmohan Singh as PM and more so given the criticism of his leadership, which has become more pronounced and even embarrassing for the Congress party and perhaps even for Sonia Gandhi. Also for the UPA Chairperson, if there is a swap between Manmohan and Pranab (the number 1 and 2 in the government), she can finally reward the Finance Minister with the offer of Prime Minister, which many people, both outside and inside the Congress, feel he can do better. Pranab anyway is seen as the main trouble shooter and he has amply demonstrated his ability to bring everyone on board, including the Opposition, on crucial issues of governance. With his valuable experience in both organizational and government matters, Pranab is also saddled with the responsibility of heading several important Group of Ministers (GoM) on vital national issues. So you see, Manmohan Singh may be the Prime Minister but it is Pranab Mukherjee who is in fact the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and definitely deserving of at least a short stint as PM. It’s also interesting that while Pranab will make a good PM and also President, Manmohan will be better as a President—to work under guidance of the political establishment in a constitutional role. For the Congress in particular, this could perhaps be the transition that it was looking for, to formally make Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister in waiting ahead of the 2014 General Election. The other calculation for the Congress would be to stick to Pranab as its choice for President and muster the requisite support even if it means contesting against candidate/s put up by others.
