The assembly election results in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in Dec 2013, electrified the BJP cadres and delivered the much-needed morale booster to the BJP leadership. At the moment, BJP is stealing a march over its opponents at least in terms of crowd turn up in the elections rally. In the run-up to the poll, BJP has built up its argument on the plank of good governance in BJP ruled states, anti-incumbency and most importantly on the massive corruption in the UPA regime for 10 years. Narender Modi, riding on the crest of rejuvenated BJP cadres is going hammer and tong against its opponent promising nothing short of the moon. Retired IAS, IPS officers and retired army generals are making a beeline to BJP; including V.K. Singh retired army chief. BS Yeddyurappa, Kalyan Singh and Uma Bharti former Chief Ministers, who deserted BJP, have returned ‘Home’. Modi, with his oratorical skill and ability to thrash opponents in the electoral bout may sway the electorates, especially in the Hindi belt. And, Modi’s rhetoric may appeal to the upwardly mobile Indian middle class.
Advantage BJP, third front cracked; tainted Congress limping
However, Modi’s role in 2002 Gujarat riot and his aggressive Hindutva agenda in a pluralistic India will be his Achilles heel. Despite this, some minority leaders are cozying up to Modi sensing that he is leading the race to 7 Race Course Road. But it will not be smooth sailing for NaMo, he has to get pass host of hurdles on his way up to the 7 Race Course Road. The Advani-Sushma Swaraj camp is yet to reconcile to BJP declaring Modi, the prime ministerial candidate. And, even the supporting party may play spoil sport to Modi’s dream project if the BJP does not secure a respectable tally. Along with Akali Dal in Punjab and Shiv Sena in Maharastra, LJP in Bihar, he needs to cultivate and rope in more dependable allies to his side and secure at least 200-220 seats for BJP to legitimize his claim to the throne.
The congress in a belated damage control propped up a young and clean face in Rahul Gandhi as the campaign chief, sans the charisma. It may not be possible for Rahul alone to help cover up the gigantic corruption in four months time that took place in a decade. All innovative works of UPA Govt. have been nullified by scams and scandals over a period of 10 years. It is surprising that Sonia-Rahul-Dr Manmohan Singh combined could not stem the rot all these years. They ought to have been more scrupulous considering the competitive politics the country is going through as never before. This politics of silence and tolerance by the congress leadership had triggered a movement against corruption headed by Kejriwal. The phenomenal rise of AAP under Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi on the plank of corruption completely demoralized the congress. The development plank of Sheila Dikshit in the last 15 years in Delhi had failed to prevent the political hurricane. It wrecked havoc in Delhi and reduced the Congress Legislature party (CLP) to single digit and mauled in mauled in three other states. This hurricane is likely to hit many more states in April- May with major damage likely in the congress party.
The fate of Congress in this election is akin to a criminal awaiting a verdict in a court. Be that as it may, even a week is a long time in politics, and they say ‘politics is the art of possible’ so, congress would do well to mobilize all its resources at his command to acquit from the possible harsh sentence that hangs like a sword of the Damocles. In politics, people are the judge and persecutor roll into one and it will be interesting to watch how effectively the congress advocates present their case in the people’s court.
If the chief ministers of five states comprised of Nitish, Navin, Jaya, Mama and Akilesh (Mulayam) can come to a common platform, which accounts for 222 seats of the total 543 seats in the Loksabha, the combination will be a force to reckon with and can give the BJP a run for its money. All these chief ministers had gone on record of late, disapproving the brand of BJP politics. Out of the total 222 seats, if they can garner 120-140 seats, they can go to congress and beg for outside support. The Left with other smaller party can join this combination after the elections to checkmate the BJP. However, Mama may torpedo the plan to take left support, Mulayam and Maya does not see eye to eye in UP and Nitish and Lalu in Bihar will be at each other’s throat, so, the combination in all likelihood will collapse like a pack of cards. But if they consider BJP as communal out to destroy the secular fabric of the country, then they ought to shed their ego and personal animosity and come to some sort of understanding even with congress before the poll, to halt the inroad the BJP is making across the country.
AAP has raised a pertinent issue of corruption and graft in the Indian political system. The crusaders have taken head on against established political outfit like INC and BJP, including industrialist Mukesh Ambani. Arvind Kejriwal deserves a pat on his back. But, Kejriwal seemed to be a man in a hurry and erred in trying to execute things in a day, as if tomorrow will never come. Kejriwal has a mission to cleanse the messy dirt that accumulated over a period of more than sixty years with powerful people preventing him to touch the filth, let alone clean it. In this circumstance, he should not take emotional decision to execute this gigantic task. He needs level-headed advisors. His law minister instead of advising him found himself flouting all rules and institutional mechanism in his effort to take up cudgel against drugs, prostitution and immorality involving foreign nationals. Kejriwal’s Durbar outside Delhi secretariat, as grievance redressal mechanism was found to be flawed and it did boomerang. Finally, he sacrificed AAP Govt. in Delhi; as he refuses to follow constitutional norms in Delhi.
It must be remembered that in 1974-1975, JP called for total revolution, which culminated in the overthrow of congress in 1977. The revolution that kindled in Bihar ended congress hegemony in India. It not only defeated Mrs. Gandhi and his son Sanjay Gandhi in the polls, but Mrs. Gandhi was put behind bars. This significant political development ended up in total chaos and squandered away the historic opportunity by the same leaders who were the leading light of the revolution. The Janata party Govt. collapsed and party broke up into pieces. A few wrong step of Janata party revived Mrs. Gandhi’s fortune and cleared the deck for Mrs. Gandhi return to power in 1980. Mr Kejriwal must remember that history repeats itself. The Augean Stable he intends to cleanse requires matured handling and ought to execute them within the ambit of well laid down rules and procedures as by law established. Notwithstanding the initial hiccups, the AAP is expected to bring in talent and vocal Lawmakers to the 16th Lok Sabha to keep the Govt. of the day on its toes.
In this parliamentary election, Rio is one political actor to be watched from seven NE states. One, He is one current chief minister along with NaMo to contest the upcoming parliamentary polls. Two, as Convener of North East Regional Political Forum (NERPF), he will spearhead the campaign for Regional party from the NE and parade the elected contingent from the seven sisters before the ruling combination in Delhi. Three, As the Convener of NERPF and current chief minister of a NE state for third consecutive term, he has an added advantage to do business with central leadership. Four, His equation with all central leaders across political spectrum in Delhi will bode well for him. Thus, he can cohabit with NDA, UPA, third Front or any political formation that will rule Delhi. There is no doubt of his inclusion in the central council of ministers with cabinet berth or minister of state with Independent charge in the event of a fractured mandate. An important functionary of NERPF has revealed that BJP president Rajnath Singh impressed on Rio to contest from Nagaland parliamentary seat to play a bigger role at the centre.
But, if political arithmetic goes awry the million dollar question is, will Rio develop cold feet and change his mind to continue as shepherd in Nagaland rather than to be a sheep in Delhi? Nevertheless, the most likely scenario will be an NDA-led coalition or congress backed-third Front Govt. In both this scenario, Rio will bask in the vortex of a fractured mandate and can oscillate like a pendulum and join any political formation that rules Delhi. The regional party MPs penchant either to flirt with congress in Delhi or return home-sick before completion of their term evoked flaks from various quarters. Except the older generation of Regional party MPs, none of the present breed of MPs stayed put in Delhi and performed their allotted assignment responsibly.
Then, Rio departure will create a vacancy in the office of CM and followed by a fresh round of scramble for power and position in the state. A season player that Rio is, it is hoped that he will keep his house in order and pass on the baton to the most deserving candidate.
Till today, no MPs from NE have assigned important portfolio at the centre despite its backwardness. MPs from NE have handled the department of Development of North Eastern Region (DoNER). Rumor mill is doing the round that all of them have proved themselves to be adept in amassing commission from the host of development project and inept in handling the department effectively. If this is the perception of central leaders of NE MPs, the NE leaders need serious introspection.
In this backdrop, Rio is expected to introspect, review and analyze his achievements and failures as chief minister, should he be inducted into the Union Council of Ministers after the polls. As he steps out of state to play a bigger role at the centre, one hope that his horizon broadens and help build durable infrastructure in Nagaland. The imperative need in Nagaland is a leader with audacity to walk the extra mile that can ensure equitable distribution of resources and all round development of the state with fairness and accountability, not a leader proficient at expanding his business empire.
Naga political issue is one main plank in all parliamentary elections in Nagaland. After 16 years of ceasefire, the Nagas are still groping in the dark. The Indo-Naga ceasefire agreement was signed during UF Govt. in August 1997. The NDA tenure from 1999-2004 went one step further and recognized the Naga problem as one unique issue. The UPA regime for 10 years continued the political talks. Beyond that, at least to public knowledge, no substantial progress has been made. After 16 years of ceasefire and series of political talks in and out of the country, the issue now seems to cast to the limbo.
All leaders across political spectrum at the national level have handle Naga issue and all political parties in Nagaland have been a facilitator. Consider this: From 1998-2003, the congress ruled in Nagaland when non-congress Govt. was in power at the centre from 1996-2004. The DAN Govt. came to power in Nagaland and ruled from 2003 till date, and incidentally a congress-led UPA is still in power in Delhi from 2004 till date, so, all political parties in India do have a fair knowledge of the Naga political issue. In 16 years, Govt. have come and gone, interlocutors have appointed and dismissed, monitoring cell chairman arrived and send off, ceasefire ended and extended, but there seems to be no forward movement on crux of the issue. And, eventually, the tenure of the UPA 11 more or less has come to an end and the collective leadership also returned home from Delhi.
So, what next? Against the backdrop of a volatile and unresolved Naga political issue, would it not be expedient for the Naga Political Group (NPG), all Political parties in Nagaland and the civil society to think of three things? One, find a consensus Naga candidate and send him to parliament. Two, form an all-party government in Nagaland comprising of all political party. Three, set a time frame to unite the fragmented Naga political groups. Complete this home task and impress upon the Indian Govt. that this time around, Nagas are prepared for nothing short of ‘solution’ and not ‘assurance’. The Govt. of India has taken us for ride for too long. Under the pretext of ceasefire the intention of the Govt. was to divide the Nagas into many groups as possible, fight among themselves and derail this movement.
For heaven’s sake, do not harp on Naga issue in the run-up to the polls. The mainstream political parties/leaders should not use Naga issue as a dancing doll to sway gullible voters. Electoral commitment is replete with false promises. It is time to deliver! Are you listening politicians/elected ones?
