Monalisa Tase and Monojit Das
The global strategic landscape in late 2025 is marked by fresh fractures, accelerating alignments, and the urgent need for India to assert its autonomy in a world rewiring itself. Domestically, India is pushing hard on defence-indigenisation while externally it faces trade friction with the U.S., shifting China-U.S. fault lines, and new Middle-East peace efforts casting ripples into the Indo-Pacific. These developments are neither isolated nor transient, they point to a world where power is being reorganised in real time. For India, the stakes are high: securing its neighbourhood in South Asia, recalibrating economic partnerships, preserving strategic options with great powers, and maintaining global credibility. India must now act less as a follower of global scripts and more as a strategic author of its own future.
1) India’s Indigenous Defence Push: From Imports to Innovation
October saw a major milestone in India’s quest for strategic self-reliance. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh inaugurated a Titanium & Super-Alloy Materials Plant in Lucknow, designed to manufacture components for fighter jets, missiles and satellites, a category previously reliant on foreign import. At the same time, official statements confirmed that India now domestically produces around 65 % of its defence hardware and is targeting 100 % in the years ahead. Equally significant is the release of the new Defence Procurement Manual 2025 (DPM 2025) on 23 October, which will become effective from 1 November. This manual simplifies procurement, restores larger assured orders for indigenous systems, and relaxes several legacy constraints that slowed down domestic defence manufacturing. On 23 October the Defence Acquisition Council approved procurement proposals worth around ₹79,000 crore (US$9 billion) for major missile, naval, air and land systems showing that indigenisation is being backed by significant resource flows.
For India, this push is strategic. It reduces import vulnerability, anchors technology ecosystems, creates jobs across MSMEs and the private sector, and strengthens defence export prospects. But the next test is converting capability into sustained production quality, ensuring timely deliveries, building global competitiveness, and gaining export traction. If successful, India can shift from “world’s largest arms importer” to a credible arms producer changing its external posture from dependency to supplier.
2) India–U.S. Escalations: Managing Friction in a Strategic Partnership
October also brought a rekindled bout of tension between India and the U.S. The U.S. under President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of up to 50 % on multiple Indian exports, citing India’s continued imports of Russian oil and alleged unfair trade practices. Analysts describe the moment as one of the most challenging since the early-2000s. At its core, the friction is not only about trade, it’s about trust, strategic alignment and the limits of a partnership under strain. For India, the consequences go beyond lost export revenue; they raise questions about whether the U.S. remains a dependable partner if economic coercion becomes the norm.
India’s response has been steady yet deliberate: rejecting heavy concessions, reaffirming strategic autonomy, and quietly accelerating diversification of supply chains and partnerships. This does not mean stepping away from the U.S. far from it, but it does mean operating with greater hedging: maintaining deep cooperation in defence and technology while reducing vulnerability to sudden coercive moves. As India negotiates a trade deal, the broader objective is clear: ensure that economic interdependence does not come at the cost of strategic freedom.
3) Gaza Peace Efforts in Egypt and the Enduring Shadow of Hamas
Diplomatic momentum around Gaza accelerated in early October 2025 with talks between Hamas and Israel Defence Forces at Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt supported by the U.S. and Egypt as the broker aiming to chart a path to ceasefire and reconstruction in Gaza. Despite the cease-fire framework and the promise of a stabilization force, Hamas remains active: reports indicate that only part of the hostage exchange has occurred and the group continues to maintain its organisational structure. For India, the significance is twofold: firstly, the Middle East remains a restless theatre with ramifications for India’s energy security, diaspora safety, and defence partnerships; secondly, the durability of any peace deal is uncertain, meaning that India’s investments (in supply of fuel, resettlement of its nationals, and defence logistics) must be structured for contingency. The Indian foreign-policy priority should be to maintain robust humanitarian-diplomatic capabilities, align defence logistics to protect Indian assets abroad, and leverage its good-offices reputation to contribute to post-conflict reconstruction frameworks.
4) U.S.–China Tensions: The Trump–Xi Meeting and India Between Giants
On 30 October, Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the APEC 2025 Summit. The deeper context is a U.S.–China rivalry that is increasingly economic and technological, not just military. Washington is weaponising tariffs and export controls, while Beijing is leveraging its dominance in rare-earths, manufacturing and digital infrastructure. For India, located at the fulcrum of this competition, the stakes are tangible: which corridor will gain primacy the Indo-Pacific multilateralism or Sino-U.S. economic détente? A U.S.–China deal perceived as excluding India would force New Delhi to recalibrate. India must accelerate its own “technology-sovereignty” agenda (covering semiconductors, battery supply chains, rare-earths) while preserving its Quad/Indo-Pacific commitments. Importantly, India should articulate a clear Indo-Pacific vision that is inclusive, not anti-China keeping room for connectivity with Beijing while deepening alignment with democratic partners.
5) U.S.–Russia: Sanctions, Missiles and the Strategic Ripple Effects
In late October, the U.S. announced fresh sanctions targeting major Russian oil and military firms, and signalled increased willingness to supply long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Russia declared this move would irreversibly alter its relationship with Washington. For India, which maintains significant defence-industrial and energy ties with Russia, this presents both risk and opportunity. The risk: Russia may move closer to China, limiting Indian leverage and complicating future defence access. The opportunity: India’s consistent ties with Moscow position it as a bridge actor, able to engage with both Russia and the West. India must now safeguard its Russian equipment lifecycle (spares, upgrades), preserve energy diversification (including Russian oil), and ensure that sanctions do not inadvertently restrict its own strategic autonomy. Diplomatically, India should advocate for inclusive global energy/arms regimes that do not penalise independent partnerships, while engaging trilaterals to navigate the evolving U.S.–Russia dynamic.
Conclusion: Key Policy Checklist for India
As India confronts an increasingly complex global and regional environment in November 2025, its policy approach must be proactive and multidimensional. First, a “Neighbourhood First” strategy, strengthened with strategic depth, is essential. India must enhance intelligence coordination and connectivity with Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Bay of Bengal littoral to ensure resilience amid persistent regional volatility. Second, diversified economic diplomacy remains crucial: accelerating India–EU FTA negotiations, mitigating potential U.S. trade friction, and building resilient supply chains particularly in defence, technology, and energy sectors safeguarding India’s long-term economic and strategic interests. Third, defence self-reliance must be pursued with an export-oriented mindset. Operationalising the Defence Procurement Manual 2025 and implementing ₹79,000 crore worth of procurement approvals will allow India to move from import substitution toward globally competitive defence production and exports. Fourth, technological sovereignty in the Indo-Pacific is a strategic imperative. Developing capabilities in semiconductors, rare-earth minerals, and digital infrastructure, while articulating a Euro-Indo-Pacific narrative, will preserve India’s strategic autonomy in a rapidly evolving theatre. Finally, India must continue to act as a strategic bridge and credible partner. By leveraging its relationships with Russia, the Middle East, New Delhi can build inclusive frameworks that deliver tangible outcomes, demonstrating that India’s influence stems from capability and action, not merely alignment with global powers. Collectively, these measures provide a robust foundation for India to assert itself as a stabilising, capable, and forward-looking actor in a world defined by uncertainty and rapid transformation.
Monalisa Tase, Assistant Professor, Nagaland University and Monojit Das, Independent Geopolitical Analyst
