With only a few days to go for the Manipur State Assembly Elections, a significant number of developments have been recorded this time round. Foremost is the decision of the Naga People’s Front, the ruling party in Nagaland, to contest for the first time in Manipur. The NPF has reportedly given tickets to twenty candidates, chosen after a vigorous selection process. The entry of the NPF into Manipur’s electoral politics has been both welcomed and ridiculed by people in the State. The mass based organization under the umbrella of the United Naga Council (UNC) representing the Nagas of Manipur have been enthused with the arrival of the NPF. There is high expectation amongst people in the four hills district inhabited by the Nagas and they have every reason to be happy at the prospect of Nagas coming together under the single platform provided by the NPF. For the rest of Manipur, in particular the voice coming out of Imphal Valley is not very welcoming and the ruling party from Nagaland contesting elections in Manipur is seen with suspicion and open protest. So it’s been quite a mixed bag as far as the entry of the NPF into Manipur goes. However everyone, right from politicians like Neiphiu Rio or Ibobi Singh, knows full well that the outcome of the coming elections in Manipur will be important to the future of not just the State of Manipur but also the long drawn Naga issue and the peace process therein.
As far as the players in the game goes, the Congress under Ibobi Singh will continue to be the dominant force as Rio’s NPF will be contesting in only 20 out of the 60 seats. The main aim of the Congress will be to ensure that the NPF even if it wins in some seats, which it is expected to do, the impact is minimal without making any major dent in its quest for another term of office. For the NPF, it will simply be to keep everyone interested so that with atleast some of the seats in its kitty bag, it can become a possible kingmaker, especially if no one party gets a majority in the Manipur Assembly. For the Nagas of Manipur, as already mentioned the entry of the NPF comes at a crucial time especially given the fact that in the past, it has been a major challenge for them finding the right vehicle for contesting the polls in Manipur. At least now the NPF is giving a political platform to contest on the common aspirations of the Naga people. Now that the NPF has identified the strategy and agenda for Naga candidates to contest the polls, it remains to be seen as to how the party can ensure that people vote in a ‘united’ manner and that division of votes is checked and that a good number of candidates get elected.
For those who may be interested to know, last time, of the eleven seats contested by the United Naga Council (UNC) consensus candidates, one seat each from Tamenglong, Senapati and Chandel districts were won while all the three Assembly Constituencies in Ukhrul district were swept by the UNC consensus candidates. The other five UNC-backed candidates lost to their rivals. The NPF must therefore work harder in the remaining days if it wants to win atleast 50% of the total seats it is contesting. As per past experience, being a Naga party or contesting under a common platform does not guarantee electoral success in Manipur. However one can take hope from the fact that last time, of the eleven UNC consensus candidates, more than half of them won. With the party contesting 20 seats, even 10 seats for the NPF will be a good beginning.
