The decision of the National Congress Party (NCP) to withdraw support to the NPF led DAN government in Nagaland was on expected lines given that the two MLAs elected on NCP ticket during the last Assembly polls had switched side and merged their respective supporters to the ruling NPF. Despite this betrayal it was quite strange that the NCP continued to play ball with the NPF. This must have been something to do with the good equation shared between Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio and NCP leader PA Sangma. In fact the Rio-Sangma combine had tried many formula based on an anti-Congress platform to rally political forces in the Northeast region but off course without much success. In the run up to the last General Elections as well, sensing the debacle of the Congress led UPA government, the so called Northeast People’s Forum was floated by the likes of Rio and Sangma. But as soon as the Congress led UPA stormed back to power, the much touted NE forum simply disappeared. So both Rio and Sangma has been close ally and for the NCP to divorce itself from the NPF must have been a difficult decision. But who knows what politics can do. As it is often said in politics there are no permanent friends or enemies only permanent interests. An NCP-NPF alliance may therefore be off the hook for now but you never know with power and how things can change very quickly.
Then off course the NCP is touting itself as the alternative to both the ruling NPF and Opposition Congress. This is going to be interesting how things play out from now onwards till the 2013 Assembly polls. If past experience goes, the Congress in Nagaland would still feel it has the strength to go it alone without any seat sharing with other smaller parties like the NCP. On its part the NCP also appears to be confident of going it alone. The NPF even though it has been successful in the past with pre-poll alliance, this time no one seems to be willing to trust the ruling party after what it has done to the smaller parties like the BJP and NCP during the current regime. The Janata Dal (United) of Nitish Kumar has expressed willingness to tie up with the NPF. However it is quite interesting that this offer as per media report is for the coming Manipur elections. One prospect could be that the NPF will do well in the coming Manipur elections and if this is so it could support the single largest party and even join the government. However it will be crucial for the NPF to retain power in Nagaland if it wants to pay a larger role in the NE region. As for the Nagaland Congress the only alternative is to get a majority on its own. A hung verdict is not going to benefit the Congress because smaller parties like the NCP even though they have left the NPF coalition, the Rio-Sangma equation may come into play once again and the balance in the numbers could be tilted in favour of the NPF.
Then off course the NCP is touting itself as the alternative to both the ruling NPF and Opposition Congress. This is going to be interesting how things play out from now onwards till the 2013 Assembly polls. If past experience goes, the Congress in Nagaland would still feel it has the strength to go it alone without any seat sharing with other smaller parties like the NCP. On its part the NCP also appears to be confident of going it alone. The NPF even though it has been successful in the past with pre-poll alliance, this time no one seems to be willing to trust the ruling party after what it has done to the smaller parties like the BJP and NCP during the current regime. The Janata Dal (United) of Nitish Kumar has expressed willingness to tie up with the NPF. However it is quite interesting that this offer as per media report is for the coming Manipur elections. One prospect could be that the NPF will do well in the coming Manipur elections and if this is so it could support the single largest party and even join the government. However it will be crucial for the NPF to retain power in Nagaland if it wants to pay a larger role in the NE region. As for the Nagaland Congress the only alternative is to get a majority on its own. A hung verdict is not going to benefit the Congress because smaller parties like the NCP even though they have left the NPF coalition, the Rio-Sangma equation may come into play once again and the balance in the numbers could be tilted in favour of the NPF.
