From the dawn of time up through the late 1800s, economic development depended largely on the strength of man, animal, and to limited use water, wind, and steam. Economic conditions progressed from clans of primitive gatherers to reasonably advanced agricultural societies. As the industrialized age was in its early stages, the primary sources of energy were wood, coal, and whale oil. The environmental impact of utilizing these energy sources was extreme and growing worse.
Because petroleum has been so instrumental in the development of modern societies and because it is also a finite resource that will someday go into decline, supply needs will fall short of demand at some point. The main focus of this article is on the arguments put forth by the pessimists. I believe geopolitics will play an equal part in causing a supply shortage before an absolute geological peak; governments will limit their oil production levels
At 1000 Barrels of Oil Per Second
1 barrel of oil Volume: 42 gallons
Olympic Pool Volume: 648,000 gallons*
Olympic Pool Volume: ~15,428 barrels of oil equivalent
It’s estimated the current world uses 1000 barrels of oil per second
1000 bbl x 86,400 seconds in one day = 86,400,000 bbl of oil used by the world in one day.
86,400,000bbl / 15428bbl = 5,600 Olympic sized pools of oil used each day.
5,600 pools x 365 days in a year = 2,044,000 Olympic sized pools of oil is use by the world in one year.
Olympic Pool dimensions: 50m x 25m x (2m depth)**
1 meter = 3.2808399 feet
1 mile = 5 280 feet
Olympic pool length: 164 feet
Olympic pool width: 82 feet
Olympic pool depth: 6.5 feet
164 feet length x 2,044,000 Olympic pools = 335,216,000 feet in length
335,216,000 feet /5280 feet in a mile = 63,488 miles
If all Olympic pool equivalents of oil used in one year were lined up end to end, the pool would be 82 feet wide x 6.5 feet deep x 63,488 miles long.
The circumference of the world at the equator is 24,892 miles
63,488 / 24,892 = The Olympic pools lined up end to end would stretch 2.5 times around the world
The world uses ~31 billion barrels of oil per year (31,536,000,000 = 86,400,000 x 365)
86,400,000bbl/210bbl tank = 411,429 tanks of oil used each day
411,429 tanks x 365 days = 150,171,429 tanks of oil per year
Gallons of oil per year: 31,536,000,000 x 42 = 1,324,512,000,000
1.3 trillion gallons
“One inch of rain falling on a 160 acres delivers 4,344,680 gallons of water”***
1,324,512,000,000 gal per year / 4,344,680 = 304,858 inches
304,858 / 12 inches = 25,405 feet of oil equivalency volume on top of 160 acres
1 cubic mile (length x width x height) holds the volume of 1.1 trillion gallons
IEA (International Energy Agency): Oil demand is expect to 118,000,000 bbl in 2030. According to the IEA projects, allowing for depletion, it will take 200 million barrels per day from 2001-2030 to meet the expected demand. ****
118 million barrels per day equals:
43,070,000,000 barrels per year
7,648 Olympic pools per day
2,791,677 pools per year
86,711 miles of pools laid end-to-end
3.5 times around the world
34,696 feet on top of 160 acres
The problem of long-term energy sources has been drifting towards crisis for decades. Indeed, the catastrophes in Japan might finally achieve what decades of conflict in the Middle East have not: compel governments to invest in the research required to develop viable energy alternatives. The immediate political response to the Japanese disaster will be to make small re-adjustments among known energy sources, including wind and solar. But the current options that many governments wish to embrace will not do the job. Production of the materials used to capture and store solar electricity, for example, can cause just as much environmental damage as conventional fuels, and existing wind and solar technology cannot easily meet the needs of large populations. Of course, fossil fuels, mainly coal and natural gas, remain important, but their extraction and use is tied to groundwater pollution and carbon-dioxide emissions, especially in North America and China. The tragedy in Japan reminds us that, though nuclear energy emits no CO2, it is toxic in other ways. If there was ever a time for a massive investment in research into long-term energy sources, that time is now. We need something on the scale of the Manhattan Project (which created the atomic bomb), or the Apollo Program (which put a man on the moon).Both initiatives succeeded in a short period of time and at a relatively low price. In current dollars, each cost about $200 billion – a mere fraction of what the United States has paid for the Iraq war, and less than the cost implied by the rise in oil prices over the past year. Both the Apollo Program and the Manhattan Project had unique characteristics. Each marshaled the sharpest minds from a range of countries to address one task. Tolerance for failure was slim in both initiatives, so they tended to rely on the previous generation of scientific insight, because the resulting technology was more trustworthy. Neither entailed a great scientific challenge, but rather a vast engineering problem. Although invention was required, existing scientific methods were used. Unfortunately, governments now focus only on one aspect of this investment format, in which technology that is almost ready is funded. But this results in endless efforts to make non-ideal methods less troublesome.
We live if a monetary system and nothing is done if there is no monetary incentive. We need to find a source of free energy in time. I just hope the government and the people understand the consequences that lie ahead of us if we don’t ‘a total economic chaos ‘.
We need a game changer, like the integrated circuit, radio, or electricity. Such a paradigm shift requires an Apollo-scale investment, but in basic science. We need fundamental breakthroughs in alternative energy sources, and soon. Getting them will probably require a large, collaborative effort focused on theoretical science. Changing our approach to research in this way might seem more difficult than using what we already have. But, as with our natural resources, we are running out of options.
(Note: most of the Statistical data were extracted from the internet.)
Hika Zhimomi
hznaga@gmail.com
Because petroleum has been so instrumental in the development of modern societies and because it is also a finite resource that will someday go into decline, supply needs will fall short of demand at some point. The main focus of this article is on the arguments put forth by the pessimists. I believe geopolitics will play an equal part in causing a supply shortage before an absolute geological peak; governments will limit their oil production levels
At 1000 Barrels of Oil Per Second
1 barrel of oil Volume: 42 gallons
Olympic Pool Volume: 648,000 gallons*
Olympic Pool Volume: ~15,428 barrels of oil equivalent
It’s estimated the current world uses 1000 barrels of oil per second
1000 bbl x 86,400 seconds in one day = 86,400,000 bbl of oil used by the world in one day.
86,400,000bbl / 15428bbl = 5,600 Olympic sized pools of oil used each day.
5,600 pools x 365 days in a year = 2,044,000 Olympic sized pools of oil is use by the world in one year.
Olympic Pool dimensions: 50m x 25m x (2m depth)**
1 meter = 3.2808399 feet
1 mile = 5 280 feet
Olympic pool length: 164 feet
Olympic pool width: 82 feet
Olympic pool depth: 6.5 feet
164 feet length x 2,044,000 Olympic pools = 335,216,000 feet in length
335,216,000 feet /5280 feet in a mile = 63,488 miles
If all Olympic pool equivalents of oil used in one year were lined up end to end, the pool would be 82 feet wide x 6.5 feet deep x 63,488 miles long.
The circumference of the world at the equator is 24,892 miles
63,488 / 24,892 = The Olympic pools lined up end to end would stretch 2.5 times around the world
The world uses ~31 billion barrels of oil per year (31,536,000,000 = 86,400,000 x 365)
86,400,000bbl/210bbl tank = 411,429 tanks of oil used each day
411,429 tanks x 365 days = 150,171,429 tanks of oil per year
Gallons of oil per year: 31,536,000,000 x 42 = 1,324,512,000,000
1.3 trillion gallons
“One inch of rain falling on a 160 acres delivers 4,344,680 gallons of water”***
1,324,512,000,000 gal per year / 4,344,680 = 304,858 inches
304,858 / 12 inches = 25,405 feet of oil equivalency volume on top of 160 acres
1 cubic mile (length x width x height) holds the volume of 1.1 trillion gallons
IEA (International Energy Agency): Oil demand is expect to 118,000,000 bbl in 2030. According to the IEA projects, allowing for depletion, it will take 200 million barrels per day from 2001-2030 to meet the expected demand. ****
118 million barrels per day equals:
43,070,000,000 barrels per year
7,648 Olympic pools per day
2,791,677 pools per year
86,711 miles of pools laid end-to-end
3.5 times around the world
34,696 feet on top of 160 acres
The problem of long-term energy sources has been drifting towards crisis for decades. Indeed, the catastrophes in Japan might finally achieve what decades of conflict in the Middle East have not: compel governments to invest in the research required to develop viable energy alternatives. The immediate political response to the Japanese disaster will be to make small re-adjustments among known energy sources, including wind and solar. But the current options that many governments wish to embrace will not do the job. Production of the materials used to capture and store solar electricity, for example, can cause just as much environmental damage as conventional fuels, and existing wind and solar technology cannot easily meet the needs of large populations. Of course, fossil fuels, mainly coal and natural gas, remain important, but their extraction and use is tied to groundwater pollution and carbon-dioxide emissions, especially in North America and China. The tragedy in Japan reminds us that, though nuclear energy emits no CO2, it is toxic in other ways. If there was ever a time for a massive investment in research into long-term energy sources, that time is now. We need something on the scale of the Manhattan Project (which created the atomic bomb), or the Apollo Program (which put a man on the moon).Both initiatives succeeded in a short period of time and at a relatively low price. In current dollars, each cost about $200 billion – a mere fraction of what the United States has paid for the Iraq war, and less than the cost implied by the rise in oil prices over the past year. Both the Apollo Program and the Manhattan Project had unique characteristics. Each marshaled the sharpest minds from a range of countries to address one task. Tolerance for failure was slim in both initiatives, so they tended to rely on the previous generation of scientific insight, because the resulting technology was more trustworthy. Neither entailed a great scientific challenge, but rather a vast engineering problem. Although invention was required, existing scientific methods were used. Unfortunately, governments now focus only on one aspect of this investment format, in which technology that is almost ready is funded. But this results in endless efforts to make non-ideal methods less troublesome.
We live if a monetary system and nothing is done if there is no monetary incentive. We need to find a source of free energy in time. I just hope the government and the people understand the consequences that lie ahead of us if we don’t ‘a total economic chaos ‘.
We need a game changer, like the integrated circuit, radio, or electricity. Such a paradigm shift requires an Apollo-scale investment, but in basic science. We need fundamental breakthroughs in alternative energy sources, and soon. Getting them will probably require a large, collaborative effort focused on theoretical science. Changing our approach to research in this way might seem more difficult than using what we already have. But, as with our natural resources, we are running out of options.
(Note: most of the Statistical data were extracted from the internet.)
Hika Zhimomi
hznaga@gmail.com
