Weekly data of confirmed cases and deaths as well as Sample Testing and Positivity Rate in Nagaland as of December 18, 2020. (Photo Courtesy: IDSP/DoHFW Nagaland)
Morung Express News
Dimapur | December 19
Nagaland is at risk of widespread community transmission due to unlimited commercial events and parties and avoidable social gatherings, the health department noted on Saturday.
“December is witnessing events and social gatherings on an alarming scale at a crucial point in our fight against the pandemic,” the state Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP), Health & Family Welfare, said in its latest weekly COVID roundup published on December 19.
COVID-19 appropriate behaviours are not maintained in such events/gatherings, it added.
Positivity rate increasing
The IDSP data indicated that the weekly sample positivity rate at 10 per cent is one of the highest in the country with Nagaland recording 198 confirmed cases and 2 deaths, in the past week alone. It said that 83 per cent of the cases were from traced contacts/ within the community. The national sample positivity rate is at 6.25 per cent.
Weekly percentage of Traced contacts or cases from the community has increased from 1 per cent in the first week of July to 83 per cent as of this week.
The IDSP also pointed out that 50 per cent of all traced contacts or cases from the community are in the 21-40 years age group and cautioned that the uncontrolled spread among this age group is increasing risk in the higher age groups.
Another alarming development is the increase in positivity rate among cases attending flu clinics which is at 13 per cent (636/4811). These cases either had or have symptoms or got tested for travel/ surgery purposes and do not have history of travel or contact with a confirmed case.
“The situation is more alarming unlike earlier days when cases were mostly confined within the quarantine centers,” it said while underscoring that the high sample positivity rate also points to “undetected cases in the population.”
50 per cent increase in hospital admission
The IDSP stated that COVID-19 hospital admissions have increased 50 per cent from last week with 18 new admissions across the state from December 12- 18 as compared to 9 in the previous week (December 5-11).
Increase in COVID-19 hospital admissions signifies increase in moderate, severe and critical cases and undetected transmission in the community, it observed.
Undetected ‘super spreaders’
Among the 11,832 confirmed cases as of December 18, the IDSP data showed that only 5 per cent of the cases have or had symptoms—the most common being fever (76 per cent) followed by cough (50 per cent).
The IDSP stated that, “High asymptomatic cases in the state could mean there are undetected silent super spreaders and cases will manifest only weeks after the event in high-risk people.”
It noted that those people who have symptoms may self -isolate or seek medical care but those without symptoms may continue to circulate in the community and have the potential to be “super spreaders.”
Out of 63 COVID-19 deaths in the state, the IDSP stated that 64 per cent are below 60 years of age with age groups 40-49 years and 30-39 years being the most common affected.
Diabetes and hypertension are the most commonly associated comorbidities, it said.
Household (29%) and workplaces (24%) continue to be most common places of infection.
