Tiruchirappalli: Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Tamil Nadu BJP President Nainar Nagenthran, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) General Secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) leader Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss during a public meeting in Tiruchirappalli district of Tamil Nadu, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (Photo: IANS)
Chennai, March 15 (IANS) The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is expected to unseat the MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government in Tamil Nadu elections, while the adjoining state of Kerala is set to witness a close finish, the IANS-Matrize Opinion poll found in its survey.
In both Southern states, the regional parties continue to hold sway, but the new entrant does threaten their supremacy as actor Vijay-led TVK is seen seizing a considerable voter base, while in Kerala, the BJP-led NDA is projected to bag vote percentage in double digits, though not impacting the poll outcome.
According to IANS-Matrize Opinion polls, AIADMK-led alliance is projected to bag 39-40 per cent vote share, translating into 114-127 seats, while the ruling DMK is likely to fall behind with 37-38 per cent vote share and likely projections at 104-114 seats.
AIADMK’s lead over DMK remains uniform in all zones except the West and Central regions. For DMK, the Chennai region continues to remain its stronghold as it is seen outperforming its key rival by over 7-8 vote share and grabbing a lion’s share of 37 seats in the region.
Actor-turned-politician Vijay’s new outfit, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), has emerged as a potential ‘disruptor’ in the entrenched Dravidian political order in the state. The Opinion poll forecasts a good 14-15 vote share for the outfit and is seen winning at least 6-12 seats in the 234-member Assembly.
In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and United Democratic Front (UDF), the two major coalitions, are seen locked in a close contest; however, the Left-led alliance may get the better of the Congress-led outfit.
According to the IANS-Matrize Survey, the LDF is projected to fare moderately better as the UDF is not seen as challenging its dominance, thereby keeping the status quo.
The LDF is projected to get 42-43 per cent vote share, translating into 61-71 seats, while the UDF is expected to get 41-42 per cent vote share, which could settle the latter’s tally at 58-69 seats.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has emerged as a formidable force in the state, but not as forceful enough to have a role in government formation. According to the Opinion poll, NDA is seen making deep inroads in the Southern state, drawing about 12-13 vote share but fetching just about two seats.
The halfway mark in the 140-member Assembly is 71 seats, and the ruling coalition looks firmly in control of the saddle.
