Monalisa Tase and Monojit Das
In early December 2025, the global strategic landscape continues to shift dramatically, shaped by a confluence of diplomatic breakthroughs, security alarms, and climate urgency. Four defining events, the U.S.-Ukraine peace framework, a major India-internal security threat, the G20 Johannesburg Summit, and the COP30 climate conference, weave together to sketch a world that is both fracturing and seeking reinvention. For India, these trends demand a calibrated strategy: one that balances strategic autonomy with multilateral engagement, safeguards national security, and accelerates its role in global public goods.
1. The U.S.-Ukraine Peace Framework: A Recalibration in Europe’s Conflict
Late November saw a renewed push by the United States and Ukraine toward a reworked peace framework to end the nearly four-year war with Russia. After high-level talks in Geneva, both sides announced an “updated and refined” draft, though they remained vague on its precise contents. According to U.S. negotiators, the revised plan now better addresses Ukrainian security concerns, sovereignty, and long-term reconstruction. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed cautious optimism, noting that while semantics still needed work, progress was real. Originally, the U.S. had floated a 28-point proposal that alarmed Kyiv and several European capitals: it reportedly included provisions for territorial concessions, strict limits on Ukraine’s military, and constraints on NATO engagement. But European interlocutors proposed a counter-plan: their version would allow Ukraine to maintain a larger army and begin land-swap discussions only from current frontlines, rather than pre-defined maps. Strategically, this development matters far beyond Europe. If a deal succeeds, it could shift how great powers approach conflict resolution: signaling that even after years of brutal war, negotiated frameworks remain viable, but only if they respect sovereignty and long-term guarantees. For India, the implications are twofold. First, a successful peace deal would reshape the geopolitical balance in Europe and could reduce Moscow’s leverage, potentially easing global energy market tensions. Second, India might find a precedent for how to approach conflict resolution with its neighbors: blending risk with diplomacy, and insisting on long-term guarantees for security and reconstruction.
However, significant risks persist. Key details such as the guarantees for Ukraine, the role of NATO, and the enforcement mechanisms largely remain opaque. What’s more, if the agreement is perceived as too favorable to Russia, it could trigger backlash in Kyiv and among Western allies. India must watch closely: a fragile European deal could unravel, and the impact of renewed war or a flawed peace could echo into the Indo-Pacific.
2. Terror in Delhi: Unmasking a Transnational Arms Racket
On November 22, Delhi Police’s Crime Branch made a dramatic bust: four operatives were arrested in connection with an ISI-linked arms trafficking module. The network reportedly used drones to smuggle high-end foreign-made semi-automatic pistols, including the Turkish PX-5.7 (used by special forces), from Pakistan into Indian territory, along with 92 live cartridges. Investigations revealed that the drones dropped consignments at pre-designated GPS points near the border fence, and local collaborators then retrieved and transported the shipments via safe houses. Payments were channeled through hawala networks, and handlers used encrypted communication.
This incident is more than a law-and-order success; it underscores a growing nexus between state-backed actors, transnational crime, and high-end weapons proliferation. The involvement of the ISI suggests a strategic dimension: the arms are not merely for profit but could be part of a deliberate attempt to fuel instability in India. For India’s security apparatus, it raises difficult questions about border surveillance, the sophistication of smuggling networks, and the evolving threat of drone-enabled trafficking.
Strategically, the bust highlights the dangers posed by cross-border hybrid threats. India must not only reinforce physical border security but also expand its technological and intelligence capabilities to anticipate drone drops, monitor encrypted communications, and choke financial conduits like hawala. At a diplomatic level, New Delhi should press for stronger regional cooperation to curb such trafficking, while also signaling that any strategic proxy destabilization will be met with firm counter-measures. This event may also affect India’s foreign policy posture: as it builds its defense-industrial base, ensuring that indigenous production and export controls don’t inadvertently feed black markets will be critical.
3. G20 Johannesburg Summit: A New Axis of Multilateralism
The 2025 G20 Summit, held on November 22–23 in Johannesburg, South Africa, the first ever on African soil, was highly symbolic and strategically consequential. Despite a total U.S. boycott, leaders adopted a 122-point declaration broadly focused on debt relief, climate action, critical minerals, disaster resilience, and multilateral reform. The early adoption (at the opening rather than the traditional closing) of the declaration was a deliberate signal: South Africa, and by extension the Global South, was asserting its agenda and refusing to be held hostage by the U.S. absence.
Key highlights from the summit include:
Debt Relief & Development Finance: Leaders acknowledged the crippling debt burden on low- and middle-income countries. The declaration commits to enhancing the G20 Common Framework and increasing concessional financing, particularly through multilateral development banks.
Climate & Energy Transition: The G20 underscored the urgency of climate action, even without U.S. endorsement. The declaration calls for scaling up climate finance, disaster resilience, and clean energy transitions.
Critical Minerals: There was a strong push to transform critical minerals from raw exports into value-added industries, especially in Africa.
Global Governance: Member states emphasized reforming international financial institutions and enhancing multilateral cooperation.
Peace & Security: The declaration included calls for “just, comprehensive, and lasting peace” in conflict zones such as Ukraine, Sudan, the DRC, and Palestine.
Strategically, the Johannesburg G20 reflects a turning point. It underscores a growing realignment where the Global South is taking leadership on sustainable development, debt, and climate justice. For India, this summit offers several opportunities. First, as a key player in the Global South and a recent G20 president (in its earlier cycle), India can leverage the Johannesburg consensus to push for more inclusive development finance, reform of international institutions, and equitable access to critical minerals. Second, India's ambitions in green energy and technology align with the summit's call for value addition in minerals, which could amplify India’s role in global supply chains.
However, the U.S. boycott cannot be ignored: it signals serious fault lines in global governance. India must carefully manage its strategic partnerships, hedging between deepening ties with the Global South and maintaining vital relations with Western powers. Moreover, the momentum from Johannesburg will only be meaningful if translated into concrete institutional reform, an outcome that India must push for in both bilateral and multilateral fora.
4. COP30: Alarm Bells from the Amazon
Meanwhile, COP30 (30th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC) convened in Belém, Brazil, from November 10–21, 2025, under a mantle of urgency. The summit was structured around an ambitious “Action Agenda” that mobilizes civil society, business, and governments across six thematic axes: energy transition, forests and oceans, agriculture, infrastructure resilience, social development, and enablers like finance and technology.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres delivered a stark warning: failing to limit warming to 1.5°C is not only a political failure but a “moral failure and deadly negligence,” with potentially catastrophic tipping points for ecosystems and human security. Compounding the drama, a fire at the COP30 venue forced an evacuation, disrupting key negotiations on climate finance, fossil fuel transitions, and transparency.
Midway through the summit, a fire erupted in the Blue Zone of the COP30 venue, prompting evacuation and temporary closure — disrupting ongoing negotiations, including on issues like climate finance, fossil-fuel transition, and transparency.
COP30 also faced geopolitical tensions. Despite calls from many countries for a fossil-fuel phase-out, the final COP30 text did not adopt binding commitments to phase out fossil fuels. Meanwhile, developing countries pressed for more and better climate finance, and for reforms to make such funding more predictable and accessible
For India, COP30’s outcomes present both opportunity and challenge. On one hand, India can reinforce its narrative as a leader of climate justice: advocating for the Global South, pushing for concessional finance, and emphasizing technology transfer. On the other, India must scale up its own climate commitments especially in renewable energy and forest conservation and ensure that its development trajectory remains green. The disruptions and ambitious agenda of COP30 underscore that climate diplomacy is now deeply interwoven with issues of development, debt, and geopolitics.
5. Strategic Synthesis & Implications for India
Putting these threads together, the strategic takeaway for India is clear: the world is reorganizing around new axes of power, and India must act as both a stabilizer and a proactive shaper.
Strategic Autonomy and Diplomacy: The U.S.-Ukraine peace talks show that power competitions remain, but there are new openings for negotiated peace and India should hedge accordingly. India can act as a bridge-builder, leveraging its relationships with Western democracies, Russia, and regional players while reaffirming its independent strategic identity.
Security Vigilance: The Delhi arms racket bust underscores a growing threat from hybrid and transnational non-state actors potentially backed by state sponsors. India’s security architecture must evolve: from traditional border patrols to drone detection, financial forensics, and cross-border intelligence cooperation.
Global Governance & Multilateral Reform: The G20 outcomes in Johannesburg signal a shift toward multilateralism anchored in Global South priorities. India should double down on pushing for reforms in international financial institutions, advocating for debt restructuring mechanisms, and promoting development models that do not force countries into dependency.
Climate Leadership: COP30 has reinforced that climate action is no longer just an environmental imperative; it’s a matter of security, equity, and justice. India is well-placed to champion climate finance, green technology, and resilient infrastructure, especially for the Global South.
Collectively, these developments present India a powerful narrative: of a nation that is global yet rooted, forward-looking yet anchored in principle. Crafting and projecting this narrative across diplomacy, security, economy, and climate will be central to India’s influence in the coming years.
Monalisa Tase is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Nagaland University.
Dr Monojit Das is an Independent Geopolitical Analyst and Honorary Advisor to the Editorial Board of IADN (Indian Aerospace and Defence News).
