Monalisa Tase and Monojit Das
The strategic environment in early 2026 has been significantly shaped by a visible escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions at sea, marking a transition from rhetorical posturing to tangible military signalling. The United States has moved a substantial naval force toward the Middle East, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, as part of an enhanced deterrence posture toward Iran. Entering Middle Eastern waters in late January 2026, the deployment includes guided-missile destroyers, littoral combat ships, and supporting assets, expanding Washington’s operational flexibility across the Gulf, Red Sea, and Arabian Sea.
The deployment of the USS Delbert D. Black to the Red Sea underscores Washington’s determination to safeguard key maritime routes amid escalating regional instability. U.S. officials and analysts describe the current naval posture as one of the largest concentrations of American maritime power in the region in recent years. Media reports suggesting Iranian live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, however, were not supported by official Iranian statements. Nevertheless, Iran has continued assertive naval manoeuvres in nearby waters, including the use of fast-attack craft, missile platforms, and asymmetric maritime capabilities, contributing to heightened anxieties over commercial shipping and regional energy security.
The risk of miscalculation has grown markedly. U.S. Central Command has publicly warned Iran over “dangerous and unprofessional” conduct after Iranian UAVs conducted close approaches to U.S. aircraft carriers. While neither side appears to seek open conflict, the density of military assets in constrained waters has increased the likelihood of an unintended incident escalating rapidly. The economic implications are global. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger volatility in oil prices, spike insurance premiums for commercial shipping, and exacerbate inflationary pressures already present in major economies. For energy-import-dependent regions such as Asia and Europe, sustained instability would pose both strategic and economic risks. Thus, the U.S.–Iran maritime standoff has emerged as a critical flashpoint with consequences far beyond the Gulf.
Bangladesh Election 2026: Political Transition Under Economic Strain
South Asia’s strategic landscape is further shaped by the Bangladesh general election scheduled for 12 February 2026, which is unfolding amid political uncertainty and economic stress. The electoral contest is marked by heightened competition, shifting alliances, and renewed debate over the credibility of governance. A notable feature of this election cycle is the emergence of the National Citizen Party (NCP) as part of a broader opposition coalition, introducing a more pluralistic political dynamic than in previous elections. This diversification reflects public dissatisfaction driven by economic pressures and governance concerns, particularly among urban youth.
Economically, Bangladesh faces a challenging outlook. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the next government will inherit a “clouded” macroeconomic environment characterised by weak revenue mobilisation, exchange-rate vulnerabilities, and stalled banking sector reforms. Public debt pressures and declining foreign exchange reserves have constrained fiscal space. In a significant development, the IMF has postponed the release of the sixth instalment of US $5.5 billion loan tranche until after the elections, linking future disbursements to policy continuity and reform commitments by the incoming government. This decision underscores the intersection of domestic politics and external financial credibility.
The interim administration’s policy decisions have also drawn scrutiny. Critics argue that accelerated infrastructure projects, public sector pay hikes, and large fiscal commitments in the pre-election period may burden the next government and complicate post-election stabilisation efforts. Meanwhile, unemployment, particularly among educated youth, persistent poverty, and perceptions of corruption continue to drive public anxiety. The election outcome will shape not only Bangladesh’s domestic trajectory but also regional stability, trade connectivity, and India’s neighbourhood diplomacy.
The UN Financial Crisis: Strain on Global Governance
Compounding geopolitical instability is an unfolding financial crisis at the United Nations, which threatens the operational viability of the world’s principal multilateral institution. The UN Secretary-General has warned of an imminent liquidity crunch, driven by record unpaid dues, rigid budgetary structures, and declining voluntary contributions. By the end of 2025, outstanding dues exceeded US $1.5 billion, forcing budget cuts, hiring freezes, and reductions in peacekeeping and humanitarian programmes. A significant contributor to this crisis is delayed or reduced funding from major donors, particularly the United States, reflecting broader scepticism toward multilateral institutions under the current U.S. administration.
The implications are profound. A weakened UN risks reduced effectiveness in conflict mediation, humanitarian relief, closing down mother and baby clinics (UNFPA) and global norm-setting at a time when conflicts, climate shocks, and refugee flows are increasing. The financial strain highlights a deeper crisis of confidence in post-war multilateral frameworks.
Trump and Europe: A Widening Transatlantic Divide
Relations between the United States and Europe have entered a period of pronounced strain under President Donald Trump’s renewed leadership. Differences over trade policy, defense burden-sharing, tariffs, and strategic autonomy have sharpened, eroding assumptions of automatic transatlantic alignment. European leaders increasingly perceive U.S. policy as transactional and unilateral. Debates over tariffs, regulatory divergence, and defense commitments have fueled calls within Europe for greater strategic autonomy, including deeper defense integration and industrial self-reliance. Former European leaders have openly questioned the durability of the post-Cold War order, arguing that Europe risks marginalisation between U.S. and Chinese power. European nations are now forced to navigate these collisions without strong U.S. leadership, leading to potential détente or further alienation. This divergence complicates NATO cohesion and weakens coordinated responses to global crises, further fragmenting the Western strategic consensus.
Way Ahead: Implications for India and the Road Forward
For India, the evolving global landscape presents both risks and opportunities. The U.S.–Iran maritime tension directly affects India’s energy security, given its reliance on Gulf oil supplies and the safety of sea lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. New Delhi must continue its balanced approach by maintaining strategic ties with the United States while preserving diplomatic channels with Iran and strengthening alternative energy and transport routes.
The Bangladesh election holds immediate neighbourhood implications. Political instability or economic distress in Bangladesh could affect border management, migration, trade, and regional connectivity initiatives. India’s engagement strategy must prioritise political neutrality, economic cooperation, and post-election stability, reinforcing its role as a reliable regional partner.
At the global level, the weakening of multilateral institutions such as the UN places greater responsibility on middle powers like India to uphold rule-based norms. India’s growing diplomatic footprint positions it to advocate institutional reform while leveraging forums such as the G20, QUAD, and Global South platforms.
The transatlantic rift and shifting U.S. priorities further underscore the need for strategic autonomy, a principle already central to Indian foreign policy. Diversifying partnerships across Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will be critical as traditional power alignments become less predictable. The year 2026 is shaping up as a year of strategic inflection. Military posturing, economic fragility, political transitions, and institutional stress are converging to reshape the global order. For India, navigating this environment will require calibrated diplomacy, economic resilience, and a clear articulation of national interests, anchored not in alignment with any single power bloc, but in a pragmatic, multi-vector approach to a fragmenting world.
Monalisa Tase is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Nagaland University.
Dr Monojit Das is an Independent Geopolitical Analyst and Honorary Advisor to the Editorial Board of IADN (Indian Aerospace and Defence News).
