Moa Jamir
On June 4, the nation's attention will be riveted on the vote counting for the 18th Lok Sabha elections, a marathon polling exercise that spanned 44 days across seven phases.
This extensive process, however, over 81 days and began with the Election Commission of India's (ECI) announcement on March 16 and culminates with the results declaration on June 4. Additionally, the results of the Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha will be announced simultaneously.
Addressing a press conference on the eve of counting on June 3, the ECI highlighted the scale of this election, noting a record-breaking participation of 642 million voters, solidifying India's status as the world's largest democracy.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and increasingly synonymous with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is vying for a historic third consecutive term. Such a victory would not only cement Modi’s legacy in Indian politics but also set the country on a new trajectory. Conversely, the INDIA Opposition bloc aims to halt the ruling alliance's momentum by staging a surprise upset on June 4.
However, even before the elections, there was both a widespread belief and a narrative being created that the ruling alliance was likely to secure another term, with only the scale of its victory in question. Factors such as a fragmented opposition and significant socio-religious shifts over the past decade, including a noticeable majoritarian tilt, have bolstered the ruling party’s confidence. The media has also faced criticism for perceived sycophancy.
The ruling dispensation would have been naturally buoyed by the exit poll results. All exit polls have generally forecast a sweeping victory with NDA, with most giving the alliance overb 350 seats. The BJP alone is projected to better its 2019 performance, currently holding 287 seats according to the Lok Sabha website.
In contrast, the best scenario for the Opposition bloc is predicted to fall short of 200 seats. Understandably, the Opposition bloc has dismissed the exit polls and is awaiting the official results on June 4, asserting that they will secure at least 295 seats according to their internal "Janta Ka Exit Poll" or public exit poll.
Nonetheless exit polls are always accurate and infallible. The 2004 general elections are often cited as a notable instance where sampling missed the mark. Other examples of such misfires include the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections in 2017, Chhattisgarh in 2023, and Bihar in 2015. Basically, due to limited sampling size and coverage, there is always the possibility of underestimation or overestimation. This was evident when the NDA's strength was underestimated in the 2014 and 2019 elections. Pollsters continually refine their methodologies based on past inaccuracies, but prudence remains essential for both voters and political parties.
The official results of the 2024 general elections will ultimately determine the accuracy of these predictions and the credibility of the pollsters. As June 4 approaches, not only the future of many political parties hangs in the balance but also the reputation of those who forecast the outcomes.
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