At a time when the violence of language is breeding intolerance, exclusion and fear - globally and here at home - thereby, creating a potential volatile environment, it is helpful to understand the relationship between over-confidence, narcissism and the arrogance of power.
A 2006 research study found that over-confident people are more likely to wage war, but fare worse in the course of an ensuing battle. It suggests that ‘positive illusions’ may contribute to costly wars. Peter Turchin of the University of Connecticut in the US states that the study ‘supplies critically needed experimental support for the idea that a positive attitude – which is generally a [beneficial] feature of human behavior – may lead to overconfidence and [damaging] behavior in the case of war.’
Peter’s observation comes against the backdrop of scientific conclusion that mentally healthy people can have highly optimistic predictions, or ‘positive illusions.’ While this optimism offered evolutionary advantages in the past and allowed the ancestors to cope with the condition of their times, it is now argued by researchers that these very same optimism in the present day has the potential to wreak chaos on international relations.
An analysis of a simulation organized by Dominic Johnson of Princeton University in New Jersey indicated that people with overconfidence tended to perform worse than they expected, and, that ‘positive illusion’ was suggested to be the cause. It has further been determined that men have generally tended to be more overconfident than women and raises the question of whether that’s the reason why men are more likely to wage war. While these aspects do contribute towards the collective behavior of people, the interplay between nature and nurture continues to reveal the various facets of human mind and behavior and their response to war and peace. None the less, the ego is actively involved in its display of overconfidence which is also arrogance and pride.
Another interesting finding was that people, who were more prone in launching unprovoked attacks on others, demonstrated more narcissism, which is again the ego at work. This trait applies to both men and women as Bertram Malle from the University of Oregon in Eugene suggests that it is the level of ‘narcissism that makes some people overly optimistic and aggressive.’ In his response to the worrying question raised by the research about political leaders, Malle is categorical in his response that ‘perhaps most disconcerting is that today’s leaders are above-average in narcissism.’ Is this another overt display of arrogance?
The crucial cause for concerns that has risen from these research studies has been the finding that people have a partial leaning to opt for war, rather than choosing careful negotiations with opponents to resolves issues. The decision to opt for war as a means is directly determined by the amount of investment a people have made in their military, and their calculated risk on the element of chance. This feature of behavior raises serious questions, and, in part, provides some crucial findings in the search for answers of peace. It further demonstrates the reliance on the war machine as being incapable of being defeated, indomitable, again is a testament to the arrogance of power.
With the concept of global phenomena, and, especially with global educational institutions and training of human behavior in multi-national corporations, and, of course with the State being its most global institution there are many lessons to be learned. Perhaps the research findings provide an insight that responds to why countries which invest so heavily on military might rely more on the war machine as an option over peaceful negotiation. One crucial point is that the war machine is economically driven.
Manufacturing weapons, making war makes money in the largest State economies on the planet. It does also sharpen the analysis on why over-confident governments and administrations are overly-optimistic and dependent on their militaristic policies, only to see it falter and ultimately fail.
