Absolute Verdict

Next—A Responsible, Inclusive Govt under Modi
 
The landslide victory of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under its Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is not just historic but politically significant in more ways than one. Just consider the fact that this is the first time in around 30 years that a single party has won absolute majority on its own. Before this, it was always a coalition government revolving around the single largest party. Examples include the first NDA government under the BJP led by Atal Behari Vajpayee and the subsequent Congress led UPA-I & II under Dr Manmohan Singh, which were run with the support of coalition partners. While every indication pointed towards a BJP led NDA-II government, not many including within the BJP would have expected an absolute majority for the party.

It is only to be expected that the BJP will lead the government along with the NDA partners even though the former can now form the government on its own. However the BJP will call the shots in the government and the alliance partners will just have to accept the reality of playing second-fiddle without much of a bargaining power. Dare to say, but the BJP will in the days to come, try and consolidate its position in the States where it has to depend on alliance partners. Remember the BJP started its journey as a two seat party in the Lok Sabha during the early 1980s. It has grown since but still without a pan India presence like the Indian National Congress. With this huge electoral verdict in its favour, the BJP will be going all out to consolidate and make further inroads into every nook and corner of India.

Given the very nature of the 2014 election verdict, the coming government under the BJP is going to be different from the outgoing UPA II regime, which had to depend on a large number of allies both within the government and those extending outside support. In fact, the statement of newly elected Lok Sabha MP from Nagaland, Neiphiu Rio (NPF) quite sums up the position of the NDA allies in the wake of the absolute majority achieved by the BJP. Here is what Rio was reported as saying: “We are not in a position to ask…we are at the mercy of BJP led NDA government”. The other factor that could play spoilsport for Rio getting a cabinet berth is the BJP’s great performance in Assam where it has gained a lot of political ground. Arunachal Pradesh is another key State for the BJP in the region where it has won. And therefore, Rio, so to speak, is not the sole voice coming from the region. And the BJP would be more interested to consolidate its position in Assam (14 seats) and Arunachal Pradesh (2 seats).  

The only thing that will perhaps work in favour of Rio getting a Ministerial position is that the Nagaland Chief Minister was among the first few leaders who openly endorsed Modi as Prime Ministerial candidate and openly declared support to the BJP led NDA. This was around the time when opinion polls were giving the BJP around 150-180 seats and much before the Modi wave. It will be interesting to see whether the new Prime Minister is a man of his word as he had reportedly promised Rio a berth in his government if it were to come to power. It will therefore be interesting to see as to how the BJP with an absolute majority of its own go along with its pre-poll allies. The way this plays out—government formation and its policies will have a major bearing on national politics and its social fabric. With an absolute majority and still greater powers vested in it, the BJP under Modi has a good opportunity to provide a responsible, inclusive and pro-people government.