Dr Monalisa Tase and Dr Monojit Das
The international environment is increasingly shaped by developments that may appear unrelated but have far-reaching strategic consequences. Elections can alter the direction of bilateral relationships, energy decisions expose the limits of geopolitical pressure, health emergencies test international solidarity, and diplomatic engagement determines who remains relevant in a rapidly changing global order.
For India, the challenge is not simply to respond to these developments as they unfold. It is to anticipate their implications and translate its established relationships into sustained cooperation. Three electoral outcomes in Brazil, Serbia and Israel, Washington’s unexpected engagement with Moscow over diesel supplies, the devastating Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Russia’s continued outreach to Africa offer important lessons for Indian foreign policy.
Elections in Brazil, Serbia and Israel:Political transitions and India's strategic interests
October witnessed important electoral developments in several countries. Among them, Brazil, Serbia and Israel deserve particular attention from New Delhi, given their respective significance for India's foreign policy and wider strategic interests.
In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured another presidential term after defeating Flávio Bolsonaro in a closely contested second-round election on 25 October. The result is significant for India because Brazil is an important partner in the Global South, a fellow BRICS member and an influential voice on issues ranging from climate change and food security to reform of international institutions. The continuity of Lula's leadership offers India an opportunity to deepen cooperation in trade, agriculture, renewable energy, technology and multilateral forums. It also provides scope for both countries to strengthen their coordination on the concerns of developing economies.
Serbia's parliamentary election produced a striking political outcome. The student-led opposition movement, contesting as the Student List, secured a preliminary 52.71 per cent of the vote and 140 seats in the 250-member National Assembly, while the list led by the ruling political establishment secured 104 seats. The result reflects the strength of public mobilisation and the growing demand for political accountability. International observers, however, also raised concerns about unequal campaign conditions, pressure on voters and the use of state resources. For India, Serbia remains an important partner in southeastern Europe, with a relationship shaped by political understanding, economic cooperation and mutual support on issues of national interest. New Delhi will need to engage constructively with the emerging political leadership while maintaining the continuity of this relationship.
Israel's parliamentary election has also produced an uncertain political landscape. The pro-Netanyahu bloc secured 53 seats, the opposition 48, while Arab-led parties won 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset. No grouping has secured the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority, making coalition negotiations central to the formation of the next government. For India, the outcome matters because the partnership with Israel extends well beyond defence procurement. Cooperation in agriculture, water management, innovation, intelligence and advanced technology has become an important part of India's strategic engagement. Political uncertainty in Israel and the wider regional situation will require careful diplomatic attention.
These three elections underline a common point: India's foreign policy must remain responsive to political change without becoming dependent on individual political leaderships. Sustained engagement with institutions, political parties, businesses and civil society can help preserve bilateral relationships through transitions. This is particularly important when national interests remain constant even as domestic political priorities change.
Trump, Putin and Russian diesel: When energy security overrides geopolitical pressure
On 9 October, US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin under which Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to the American and global markets. The announcement followed a discussion between the two leaders and was accompanied by temporary sanctions relief for the shipments. Further supplies were also indicated for November and the months ahead. The stated objective was to ease pressure on fuel prices in the United States.
The development presents a revealing contradiction in international politics. Washington has maintained pressure on countries purchasing Russian energy, arguing that such transactions help sustain Moscow's economy and its war effort in Ukraine. Yet, when domestic energy requirements and rising fuel prices became an immediate concern, the United States was prepared to engage Russia and provide relief to facilitate supplies.
This does not mean that sanctions have become irrelevant. Rather, it demonstrates that economic pressure has limits when it comes into conflict with domestic priorities. Energy security remains a fundamental national interest, and even major powers are compelled to make pragmatic adjustments when supply and affordability are at stake.
For India, the episode reinforces the importance of strategic autonomy in energy policy. As a major energy-importing country, India must protect the interests of its consumers and economy while maintaining constructive relations with different partners. Its decisions should be guided by affordability, availability and national requirements, rather than by selective geopolitical expectations. The US-Russia arrangement also raises a broader question about the consistency of sanctions regimes: countries cannot reasonably expect others to bear the economic consequences of restrictions that they themselves are willing to relax when circumstances demand.
India should continue to diversify its energy partnerships, strengthen supply-chain resilience and communicate its position through sustained diplomatic engagement. The larger lesson is that energy security is not merely a commercial concern. It is an essential component of national security and foreign policy.
Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A test of international health solidarity
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has developed into one of the country's most devastating public health emergencies. By 28 October, the reported number of confirmed deaths in the DRC had reached 4,992, with the total across affected countries approaching 5,000. The outbreak has affected several provinces and generated concern beyond the country's borders. The scale of the crisis highlights the challenges of disease surveillance, access to treatment, contact tracing and the protection of frontline health workers.
Behind these figures are communities facing the loss of family members, healthcare workers operating under difficult conditions and local institutions struggling to contain transmission. The crisis also illustrates how fragile health infrastructure, geographical challenges and limited resources can complicate the response to a fast-moving outbreak.
This is a moment when international cooperation must move beyond expressions of concern. Countries with advanced healthcare systems, medical research capabilities and emergency-response experience should extend practical assistance. India shipped 45 tons of critical medical equipment, pharmaceuticals and protective gear to support frontline health workers. USD 10 million pledge announced by Union Health Minister to help in outbreak preparedness, which is in the process moving through administrative and bilateral channels, to be released in targeted phase. Such assistance should be coordinated with the Congolese authorities, the World Health Organization and Africa CDC, ensuring that local leadership remains central to the response.
India's engagement with Africa cannot be limited to trade, infrastructure and diplomatic exchanges. Health security, capacity-building and humanitarian assistance are equally important dimensions of a meaningful partnership. Timely support during a crisis can strengthen institutional relationships and demonstrate that cooperation is rooted in shared human concerns.
Russia and Africa: Why India needs a more sustained diplomatic engagement.
Russia's continuing engagement with African countries reflects the growing strategic importance of the continent. Through summit diplomacy and bilateral outreach, Moscow has sought to strengthen cooperation in areas such as defence, energy, trade, food security and political coordination. The Russia-Africa summit process provides a platform for Moscow to maintain high-level contact with African leaders and present its long-term interests in the region.
For India, the significance lies not in viewing Africa as an arena of competition with Russia or any other external power, but in recognising that relationships require regular attention. India has considerable goodwill across the continent, built through development partnerships, education, healthcare, capacity-building, defence cooperation and people-to-people exchanges. However, goodwill must be supported by consistent diplomatic engagement and the timely implementation of commitments.
The Fourth India-Africa Forum Summit, which was initially scheduled for May 2026, was postponed following consultations between India and the African Union in view of the emerging public health situation in parts of Africa. The two sides agreed to finalise a new date through mutual consultations. It is important that this high-level engagement is rescheduled at the earliest mutually convenient opportunity.
India should also consider making the India-Africa Forum Summit a more predictable and regular mechanism of political dialogue. Beyond the summit itself, New Delhi could initiate more frequent foreign ministerial consultations, structured engagements with regional organisations and sector-specific dialogues with African partners. A dedicated BRICS-Africa dialogue would be particularly valuable. With the African Union now a permanent member of the G20 and several African countries participating in BRICS, there is an opportunity to connect the priorities of these platforms with practical cooperation on development, trade, food and energy security, healthcare and institutional reform.
India's as BRICS chairmanship and the New Delhi Declaration provide a useful foundation for taking this forward. A structured BRICS-Africa engagement could give African countries a stronger voice in discussions on global governance while allowing India to promote a cooperative approach to shared challenges.
Looking ahead: From diplomatic presence to sustained strategic engagement.
The coming months will remain crucial for India's foreign policy, particularly as political transitions, energy uncertainties and public health challenges continue to reshape international priorities. The task before New Delhi is to move beyond responding to individual developments and initiate diplomatic actions that create lasting platforms for cooperation.
Africa deserves particular attention in this regard. India should work towards an early rescheduling of the India-Africa Forum Summit and explore a more regular calendar of engagement with African leaders. Equally important is the need to institutionalise BRICS-Africa dialogues, bringing African priorities into discussions on global governance, economic cooperation, health security and development. Such initiatives would complement India's longstanding commitment to South-South cooperation and strengthen its position as a reliable partner of the Global South.
At the same time, India must remain attentive to political changes in key partner countries, defend its independent approach to energy security and contribute to international responses to humanitarian and health emergencies. Diplomatic relationships become meaningful when they produce visible outcomes and are sustained through regular consultation.
Ultimately, India's influence will depend not simply on the number of partnerships it maintains, but on its ability to nurture them through timely initiatives, institutional continuity and practical cooperation. The coming months offer an opportunity to turn diplomatic goodwill into a more resilient network of strategic relationships.
Dr Monalisa Tase, Assistant Professor, Political Science, Nagaland University
Dr Monojit Das, Independent Geopolitical Analyst
